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Daria Novikov, Anna Harvey, Olivia Gibson, Christina Harward, and George Barros
May 31, 2025, 4:45 pm ET
Click right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date each day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Click right here to see ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click right here to see ISW’s 3D management of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a pc (not a cell system) is strongly really helpful for utilizing this data-heavy instrument.
Click right here to entry ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces each day by exhibiting a dynamic frontline. ISW will replace this time-lapse map archive month-to-month.
Note: The information cut-off for this product was 12:30 pm ET on May 31. ISW will cowl subsequent reviews within the June 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Russian officers’ public statements proceed to reveal that Russia maintains wider territorial targets in Ukraine past the 4 oblasts that Russia has illegally declared as annexed. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov instructed Kremlin newswire TASS on May 31 that Ukraine dangers dropping Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv cities if Ukraine refuses a peace settlement and claimed that every single day that Ukraine delays a diplomatic answer to the struggle worsens the circumstances for Ukraine.[1] Russia could illegally declare Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts annexed, particularly ought to Russian forces launch offensive operations to grab these regional facilities. Russia notably didn’t — and nonetheless doesn’t — occupy Zaporizhzhia City when the Kremlin annexed Zaporizhia Oblast in September 2022. Kartapolov’s assertion signifies that Russia maintains territorial ambitions past Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts — in keeping with Russian officers’ requires Russia to grab Sumy City, claims that Kharkiv and Odesa cities are “Russian” cities, and growing rhetoric about Russia’s alleged historic ties to “Novorossiya” (which Russian officers have outlined as all of japanese and southern Ukraine).[2] Kartopolov’s assertion additionally signifies that the Kremlin continues to evaluate that Russian forces will have the ability to struggle a protracted struggle in opposition to Ukraine to realize these territorial targets and isn’t fascinated by good-faith negotiations to realize a diplomatic settlement to the struggle. ISW continues to evaluate that Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a principle of victory that assumes that the Russian navy will have the ability to proceed gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely.[3]
The Kremlin is continuous efforts to arrange Russian society and the Russian protection business base (DIB) for a protracted struggle with Ukraine and potential future struggle with NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 permitting the Russian authorities to revoke the rights of shareholders of protection industrial enterprises within the occasion that the enterprise fails to meet state protection orders throughout martial legislation.[4] The decree allows the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to nominate a administration firm to behave as the only government physique of the enterprise to be able to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian authorities. The decree applies to civilian aviation and shipbuilding corporations, navy improvement and manufacturing corporations, and authorities subcontractors. Putin is probably going setting authorized circumstances to permit the Russian authorities to commandeer components of Russia’s financial system and DIB ought to the Kremlin introduce full martial legislation to be able to transition the nation to a full wartime footing. ISW continues to evaluate that the Kremlin is making ready Russian society and financial system for a protracted struggle in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not fascinated by partaking in good religion negotiations to succeed in a diplomatic settlement to its struggle in Ukraine.[5]
Key Takeaways:
- Russian officers’ public statements proceed to reveal that Russia maintains wider territorial targets in Ukraine past the 4 oblasts that Russia has illegally declared as annexed.
- The Kremlin is continuous efforts to arrange Russian society and the Russian protection business base (DIB) for a protracted struggle with Ukraine and potential future struggle with NATO.
- Ukrainian forces lately superior close to Vovchansk and Toretsk and in western Zaporizhia. Russian forces lately superior close to Lyman, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We will proceed to judge and report on the consequences of those prison actions on the Ukrainian navy and the Ukrainian inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We completely condemn Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle and the Geneva Conventions and crimes in opposition to humanity although we don’t describe them in these reviews.
- Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
- Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis
- Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of three subordinate most important efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces again from the worldwide border with Belgorod Oblast and method to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv City
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and presumably advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
- Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
- Significant Activity in Belarus
Ukrainian Operations within the Russian Federation
Limited combating continued in Kursk Oblast on May 31.
Russian forces performed offensive operations in Kursk Oblast on May 30 and 31.[6] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces tried to assault towards Novyi Put (south of Glushkovo) and Tetkino (southeast of Glushkovo).[7]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment (18th Machine Gun Artillery Division, 68th Army Corps [AC], Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly working in Kursk Oblast.[8]
Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported floor exercise in northwesternmost Belgorod Oblast on May 31.
Russian Supporting Effort – Northern Axis (Russian goal: Create defensible buffer zones in northern Ukraine alongside the worldwide border and method to inside tube artillery vary of Sumy City)
Russian forces continued offensive operations in Sumy Oblast on May 31 however didn’t make confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and different Russian sources claimed on May 31 that Russian forces seized Vodolahy (north of Sumy City).[9] Russian sources additionally claimed that Russian forces seized Oleksiivka (southwest of Vodolahy) and superior in northern Kindrativka (north of Sumy City), in northern Yunakivka (northeast of Sumy City), and roughly three kilometers close to Oleksandriia (northeast of Sumy City).[10] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces occupy nearly half of Yunakivka.[11]
Russian forces attacked north of Sumy City close to Vodolahy and Kindrativka and northeast of Sumy City close to Yunakivka, Loknya, Oleksiivka, Novomykolaivka, and Oleksandriia .[12]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly working in Yunakivka.[13] Drone operators of the “Anvar” Spetsnaz detachment (presumably referring to the BARS-25 “Anvar” volunteer detachment) are reportedly placing Ukrainian positions close to the worldwide border in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.[14]
Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian goal: Push Ukrainian forces again from the worldwide border with Belgorod Oblast and method to inside tube artillery vary of Kharkiv City)
Ukrainian forces lately superior within the Kharkiv course.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 30 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately superior north of Starytsya (northeast of Kharkiv City).[15]
Russian forces performed offensive operations northeast of Kharkiv City close to Starytsya and Vovchansk on May 30 and 31.[16]
The deputy commander of a Ukrainian artillery battalion working within the Kharkiv course acknowledged that Russian forces are utilizing Lancet loitering munitions much less typically however have considerably elevated their use of first-person view (FPV) drones with fiber optic cables.[17] A Russian supply claimed to Kremlin newswire TASS that Russian forces occupy most of Vovchansk, however ISW has solely noticed geolocated proof to evaluate that Russian forces occupy about 20 % of the settlement.[18]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian goal: Capture the rest of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into japanese Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Kupyansk course on May 31 however didn’t make any confirmed advances.
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces superior to the northern outskirts of Kupyansk.[19]
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kupyansk close to the worldwide border close to Kamyanka; north of Kupyansk close to Kindrashivka and Radkivka; and east of Kupyansk close to Pishchane and Stepova Novoselivka on May 30 and 31.[20]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 121st Motorized Rifle Regiment (reportedly of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division, sixth Combined Arms Army [CAA], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly working within the Kupyansk course.[21]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Borova course on May 31 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces attacked northeast of Borova close to Kolisnykivka and Zahryzove; east of Borova close to Kopanky; and southeast of Borova towards Hrekivka and Olhivka on May 30 and 31.[22]
Russian forces lately superior within the Lyman course.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 30 signifies that Russian forces lately superior in central Lypove (north of Lyman).[23]
Russian forces attacked north of Lyman close to Ridkodub and Zelena Dolyna and towards Karpivka and Novyi Myr and east of Lyman close to Torske on May 30 and 31.[24]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Capture the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and presumably advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Siversk course on May 31 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces performed offensive operations northeast of Siversk close to Hryhorivka, east of Siversk close to Verkhnokamyanske, and southeast of Siversk close to Ivano-Darivka on May 30 and 31.[25]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Chasiv Yar course on May 31 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces performed offensive operations close to Chasiv Yar itself, southeast of Chasiv Yar close to Kurdyumivka, and south of Chasiv Yar towards Bila Hora on May 30 and 31.[26]
Ukrainian Luhansk Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets acknowledged that Russian forces have considerably elevated the variety of artillery strikes in opposition to Ukrainian positions close to Chasiv Yar.[27]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, together with its 217th VDV Regiment and 215th Reconnaissance Battalion, are reportedly working within the Chasiv Yar course.[28]
Ukrainian and Russian forces lately superior within the Toretsk course.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 31 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately superior west of Popiv Yar (northwest of Toretsk).[29]
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 31 signifies that Russian forces lately superior east of Dachne (north of Toretsk).[30]
Russian forces performed offensive operations close to Toretsk itself; north of Toretsk close to Dyliivka and Dachne; northwest of Toretsk close to Yablunivka, Popiv Yar, and Poltavka and towards Rusyn Yar, Oleksandro-Kalynove, and Pleshchiivka; and west of Toretsk close to Zorya and Nova Poltavka on May 30 and 31.[31]
Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (one hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Division, eighth Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly working close to Popiv Yar.[32] Elements of the Smuglyanka Detachment are reportedly placing Ukrainian forces in Pleshchiivka, and components of the “Rubikon” Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly placing Ukrainian positions close to Ivanopillya (north of Pleshchiivka).[33] Elements of the one hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Division, 238th Artillery Brigade (each eighth CAA), thirty third Motorized Rifle Regiment (twentieth Motorized Rifle Division, eighth CAA), 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, previously 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], SMD), and 346th Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff’s Main Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly working within the Toretsk course.[34]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Pokrovsk course on May 31 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces performed offensive operations northeast of Pokrovsk close to Shevchenko Pershe; east of Pokrovsk close to Myrolyubivka, Malynivka, and Yelyzavetivka; southeast of Pokrovsk close to Lysivka; and southwest of Pokrovsk close to Udachne, Novoserhiivka, and Zvirove on May 30 and 31.[35]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces keep positions in northern Myrolyubivka.[36] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian drone operations are complicating Russian advances close to Yelyavetivka.[37]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, SMD) and “Maksim Krivonos” Detachment (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly working within the Pokrovsk course.[38]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Novopavlivka course on May 31 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces performed offensive operations northeast of Novopavlivka close to Novomykolaivka and towards Muravka; east of Novopavlivka close to Kotlyarivka and Horikhove; and southeast of Novopavlivka close to Bohdanivka on May 30 and 31.[39]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian eightieth Tank Regiment (ninetieth Tank Division, forty first CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are reportedly working close to Troitske (east of Novopavlivka).[40]
Russian forces lately superior within the Kurakhove course.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 30 signifies that Russian forces lately superior in japanese Oleksiivka (west of Kurakhove).[41]
Russian forces performed offensive operations west of Kurakhove close to Andriivka, Oleksiivka, Kostyantynopil, and Bahatyr and southwest of Kurakhove close to Odradne on May 30 and 31.[42] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Bahatyr and Odradne.[43]
Russian forces lately superior within the Velyka Novosilka course.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 31 exhibits components of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, fifth CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]) elevating a Russian flag in central Novopil (southwest of Velyka Novosilka), indicating that Russian forces lately seized the settlement.[44] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on May 31 that components of the Russian fifth CAA seized Novopil.[45]
Unconfirmed claims: Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces superior east of Zelene Pole (southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and 500 meters towards Fedorivka (northwest of Velyka Novosilka).[46]
Russian forces performed offensive operations northwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Vesele, Vilne Pole, and Shevchenko and towards Komar; west of Velyka Novosilka close to Novosilka; and southwest of Velyka Novosilka close to Zelene Pole and Novopil on May 30 and 31.[47] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked close to Komar, Zelene Pole, and Novopil.[48]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces keep positions in northwestern Vesele.[49]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (GRU) are reportedly placing Ukrainian positions close to Komar, and drone operators of the sixtieth Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (fifth CAA) are reportedly working close to Novopil.[50]
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian goal: Maintain frontline positions, safe rear areas in opposition to Ukrainian strikes, and advance inside tube artillery vary of Zaporizhzhia City)
Ukrainian forces lately superior in western Zaporizhia.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage revealed on May 30 signifies that Ukrainian forces lately superior south of Kamyanske (southwest of Orikhiv).[51]
Russian forces attacked south of Orikhiv towards Novodanylivka, west of Orikhiv towards Pavlivka, and southwest of Orikhiv close to Stepove on May 30 and 31.[52]
The head of intelligence in a Ukrainian battalion working within the Zaporizhia course reported on May 31 that Russian forces proceed to deploy small infantry teams of two to a few troopers to assault primarily at nightfall or daybreak.[53]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 291st Artillery Brigade (forty second Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly placing Ukrainian targets in Orikhiv.[54]
Russian forces continued restricted assaults within the Kherson course on May 31 however didn’t advance.
Russian forces attacked close to Antonivsky Bridge (east of Kherson City) and Zabych Island (southwest of Kherson City) on May 30 and 31.[55]
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 61st Naval Infantry Brigade (Northern Fleet) reportedly proceed to function within the Kherson course.[56]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian navy and civilian infrastructure within the rear and on the frontline)
Russian forces performed a collection of missile and drone strikes in opposition to Ukraine on the evening of May 30 and 31. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from the airspace over Belgorod Oblast; two jet-powered drones (presumably referring to Dan-M jet-powered drones) from Belgorod Oblast; two S-300 interceptors from Kursk Oblast; and 107 Shahed and decoy drones from the instructions of Kursk City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[57] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed three Kh-59/69 missiles and 42 drones in northern, japanese, southern, and central Ukraine and that 30 drones have been “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian digital warfare (EW) techniques. Ukrainian officers reported that the strikes struck civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Donetsk oblasts.[58]
Significant exercise in Belarus (Russian efforts to extend its navy presence in Belarus and additional combine Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks)
Nothing vital to report.
Note: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorized materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly accessible info, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially accessible satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the idea for these reviews. References to all sources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.
[1] ; dot ru/politika/24101055
[2] https://isw.pub/UkrWar042225
[3] https://isw.pub/UkrWar051625
[4] dot gov.ru/doc/0001202505300005?index=1; dot ru/1895665/2025-05-30/putin-razreshil-priostanavlivat-prava-aktcionerov-za-neispolnenie-goszakaza
[5] https://isw.pub/UkrWar021225
[6] ;
[7] https://t.me/wargonzo/26867
[8] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/166721
[9] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64714
[10] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64718
[11] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/166715
[12] https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/29364
[13] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64718
[14] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/166694
[15] https://t.me/bear007/68890
[16] ; ; https://t.me/otukharkiv/6430
[17] dot com.ua/2025/05/31/na-potoczi-letyat-fpv-mizh-nymy-stvolna-arta-ukrayinski-paladiny-polyuyut-na-tanky-ta-sklady-rf-pid-harkovom/
[18] https://t.me/tass_agency/317564
[19] ; https://t.me/dva_majors/72374
[20] ; ; ; ; https://t.me/dva_majors/72374
[21] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/92610
[22] ; ; ;
[23] https://x.com/425Skala/standing/1928492125458403518
[24] ; ; ;
[25] ; ;
[26] ; https://t.me/rusich_army/23865
[27] dot media/1031177-senatori-ssa-sprognozuvali-rezultati-zustrici-z-rf-u-stambuli-kabmin-zbilsiv-obsagi-bronuvan-1193-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1748688017&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
[28] https://t.me/vysokygovorit/19783
[29] https://t.me/nm_dnr/13863
[30] https://t.me/Legion_W_Bat1/915
[31] ; ;
[32] https://t.me/nm_dnr/13863
[33] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/166653
[34] https://t.me/dva_majors/72408
[35] ; ; ; https://t.me/wargonzo/26867
[36] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64691
[37] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64691
[38] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/92578
[39] ; ; ; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/166594
[40] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/92569
[41] https://x.com/richardzai38580/standing/1928660252045492370
[42] ; ; ;
[43] https://t.me/voin_dv/15247
[44] https://t.me/voin_dv/15241
[45] https://t.me/mod_russia/53331
[46] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64716
[47] ; ; ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64716
[48] https://t.me/voin_dv/15247
[49] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/64716
[50] https://t.me/voin_dv/15246
[51] https://t.me/rusich_army/23871
[52] ; ; ;
[53] .com dot ua/2025/05/31/z-40-motoczykliv-doyidut-3-i-cze-vzhe-yihnij-uspih-vorog-garmatnym-myasom-namagayetsya-prorvatys-do-robotynogo/
[54] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/92607
[55] ; ;
[56] https://t.me/dva_majors/72379
[57] ; dot com/2025/05/30/dan-m-target-drone/
[58] dot media/1031177-senatori-ssa-sprognozuvali-rezultati-zustrici-z-rf-u-stambuli-kabmin-zbilsiv-obsagi-bronuvan-1193-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1748671718&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; ; ; dot media/1031177-senatori-ssa-sprognozuvali-rezultati-zustrici-z-rf-u-stambuli-kabmin-zbilsiv-obsagi-bronuvan-1193-den-vijni/ ; ; dot com.ua/2025/05/31/rakety-j-drony-zavdaly-udariv-po-harkivshhyni-ye-poraneni/ ; dot media/1031177-senatori-ssa-sprognozuvali-rezultati-zustrici-z-rf-u-stambuli-kabmin-zbilsiv-obsagi-bronuvan-1193-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1748673703&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ; ; ; ; ; ; ; dot media/1031177-senatori-ssa-sprognozuvali-rezultati-zustrici-z-rf-u-stambuli-kabmin-zbilsiv-obsagi-bronuvan-1193-den-vijni/?anchor=live_1748666938&utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps ;
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